Few of my friends will be happy to see Bush win. But on the other hand, Kerry is a rather pathetic candidate too. Assuming that Bush does win, what's going to happen? It's time to make some predictions.

1.

With the assistance of a bold Republican congress, Bush will get additional steam for the continued occupation of Iraq. This is badly needed, but will not be enough. The election win will only bolster Bush's overconfidence on Iraq, and the administration will hardly even try to strike the deals we need with India, China, and Russia to bring 100,000 non-American troops into Iraq. After two years, Russia will pledge some troops but not enough. Near the end of Bush's second term, China will begin to consider some sort of military partnership with the US to bring the middle east out of total chaos, and it will be up to the next president to develop the partnership.

2.

Increased spending on Iraq will further balloon the budget deficit. I believe improving world security is a worthwhile infrastructure investment, so I'm not freaked out about this. Additionally, the administration will come close to neglect of the domestic economy, which is probably the best possible outcome. Without a reelection to worry about, we're likely to get lied to spoken to less.

Where Bush does damage domestically may be Social Security. The risk here is not exactly privatization itself, which could be done without harm, but that whatever changes they have in mind will create a domestic budget crisis. By characterizing the crisis in terms of "welfare spending," Bush could strike a powerful political triple-play:

1. reunite fiscally conservative Republicans with the Christian right
2. distract nation from ongoing costs of reconstruction in Iraq
3. actually cut welfare spending.

Pulling off this sort of thing would be huge political win for the Republicans. It is likely to make many domestic issues marginally worse, including healthcare (especially for the poor).

3.

A new generation of voters is outraged at the secretive and deceptive manners of our nation's leadership. Looking for a leader, we will probably not find anyone actually good. But the process of looking will set out our values as a political bloc, and these values will guide the mainstream voters in 20 years. The foremost will state that leaders must be communicators. A good politician cleverly leverages the media, including websites/weblogs she directly authors, to communicate with voters and constituents.

4.

John Kerry will not be doing Viagra advertisements, and it will be possible to take a walk around Beacon Hill without being accosted by the Secret Service.